This Saturday will be the return of the Golden Boy Oscar De La Hoya to fight live on regular HBO and to his hometown area of Los Angeles. The fight against Steve Forbes is supposed to be what many would call a tuneup before De La Hoya goes on to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. in a rematch. De La Hoya says 2008 is his last year as a fighter and he plans to fight 3 times this year starting with Forbes. Everything about this fight points to a De La Hoya win, the location, size advantage(in both height and weight), experience, the power and the list goes on. Sounds great, but never count out the other fighter. Steve Forbes is a smart boxer who is tough and well respected in the boxing game. He has never been knockdown in a fight and he does not plan to start this weekend. Forbes has been the smaller guy in many of his fights, so that aspect does not bother him. Sure he has never fought a guy like De La Hoya before, but with all he has to gain I know he is not scared. The fight is supposed to take place at a catchweight of 150lbs, 4lbs under what De La Hoya last fought at and 10lbs above what Forbes last fought at. De La Hoya has reunited with his longtime trainer Floyd Mayweather Sr, who also had trained Forbes for several fights. Forbes is being trained by Jeff Mayweather, Floyd Sr's brother and Floyd Jr's uncle. Can you smell the family rivalry in all this? Do not forget Roger Mayweather had the assignment of training Forbes first but was told to back out since he is the trainer of Floyd Jr. Did you get all that? So lets break down the fight. As stated De La Hoya has the advantages but in order to win he has to use them. Oscar has a great jab and one of the best left hooks you will ever see. Oscar has good power and has some quickness, but he has gotten older the quickness has slowed down. With Floyd Sr back in his corner I would imagine they have worked a lot better on the jab as well as defense. Floyd Sr wants his fighter to use all advantages and then not get hit in the process. The thing Oscar needs to do to beat Forbes and possibly stop him is put lots of pressure on from the beginning. He is the bigger guy and Forbes does not have KO power. Oscar needs to establish the jab from the bell and work Forbes's midsection and chest. Cut the ring off because Forbes is a boxer and he loves to stick and move. If Oscar can cut the ring off and get Forbes in a corner he could land some good punches. With the power Oscar has, he could possibly be the first to stop Forbes. Now in order for Forbes to pull out the biggest victory of his career, he has to box. Forbes realizes that he is not a KO artist, so I would suggest he not try to be one now. Stay on your toes and box. Stick and move. Make Oscar burn some of that energy and make his legs tire out. The object is to hit and not be hit and Forbes has the speed to do that. Forbes has the Mayweather shoulder roll and should be able to avoid some punishment when he does get in the corner. However Forbes will not want to pause for long on the ropes to let Oscar get any good punches in. The crowd and probably the judges are against Forbes already, so what he has to do is land clean effective punches and make Oscar miss wildly. If he can get Oscar to miss where it is very obvious, then there can be no denying who landed the better punches. Forbes needs to also hit Oscar to the body. Oscar has been KOd to the body once and if you recall it did not look like a truly damaging punch. So Forbes should throw his own left hook to the body of Oscar to take some wind out of him too. Although most see this being a blowout win for Oscar De La Hoya, I am uncertain. My uncertainty is alive because I have seen Oscar get a gift decision in a tuneup (his UD against Felix Sturm in June 2004), the year of inactivity for Oscar, and the possibility of overlooking Forbes. Forbes has really nothing to lose, 99% of the world had wrote him off when they heard his name mentioned for the fight. The only person who probably really sees him winning is himself. Sure his team may say we think you will win, but they tend to tell you what you need to hear. The one who has the true belief is Steve Forbes. I personally think Oscar will win, but I am not sure about the KO or blowout. I would not be totally surprised if Forbes was able to etch out a Split Decision. From watching Forbes on the Contender and watching some of his other fights, I see a guy who will not give in. All the advantages belong to Oscar De La Hoya, but that is when Steve Forbes is going to be the most dangerous opponent for him. Don't miss it, Saturday May 3 Live on HBO.
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